Market Data

BTC 30D Historical Volatility

Realized volatility of Bitcoin over the past 30 trading days.

What the term means

BTC 30D Historical Volatility (30D HV) captures the annualized standard deviation of Bitcoin's daily price returns across the most recent 30 trading days. It reflects how widely Bitcoin's price has swung in the recent past—higher readings point to larger oscillations, while lower readings indicate calmer price behavior.

The metric is firmly realized volatility (backward-looking), not implied vol from options markets. As of November 10, 2025, BTC's 30D HV has ranged roughly between 25% and 60% annualized (around 1.6–3.7% on a daily basis), down meaningfully from earlier-cycle peaks above 100% yet still elevated relative to traditional assets such as gold (~1.2%) or broad equities (15–20%). Real-time dashboards like BitVol.info, CoinGlass, and Bloomberg terminals publish the series, and treasury trackers reference it when benchmarking stock betas.

Why the term matters for Bitcoin treasury companies

Volatility fuels alpha generation and BTC yield

Elevated BTC HV unlocks lucrative hedging and income strategies. Strategy (MSTR) and Strive monetize swings via covered calls, variance harvesting, and theta trades—capturing 10–30% annualized yields when volatility spikes toward 60%+. Metaplanet's zero-interest bonds and moving-strike warrants also benefit in choppy regimes, lowering capital costs. Conversely, subdued HV compresses option premia, slowing BTC stacking and eroding mNAV premiums—many 2025 laggards traded below 0.8× mNAV during calm stretches, as noted by Bitcoin Magazine.

Amplifies leveraged beta—both upside and downside

Treasury stocks routinely exhibit 2–4× BTC's realized volatility thanks to debt stacks, dilution mechanics, and premium convexity. MSTR's own 30D HV has printed 100–200%+ while Metaplanet has topped 133%, per PortfolioLab. Rising BTC HV cascades into options markets (MSTR alone supports $50 billion+ of open interest), creating gamma squeezes and explosive rallies. Yet selloffs are equally violent: the November 2025 vol spike tied to trade-tariff fears crushed thinly traded treasuries by 50–80%, widening spreads and trapping holders, as reported by The Coin Republic.

Direct pressure on mNAV premium sustainability

Investors pay 1.2–3× mNAV when volatility-enabled execution promises BTC/share growth. High HV opens arbitrage windows to buy dips and issue accretive capital, keeping premiums resilient. When HV drifts lower—as post-ETF consolidation showed—basis trades (long stock, short BTC futures) tighten and premiums compress. Jim Chanos closed his MSTR short in November 2025 partly because realized vol stayed robust enough to prevent a deep discount, according to The Coin Republic.

Capital-raising efficiency and flywheel resilience

Volatility spikes coincide with fear/greed surges, ideal for ATMs, convertibles, and warrant resets. Metaplanet's 133% stock HV in 2025 underpinned ¥200 billion+ equivalent volume and $1.4 billion in fresh raises. Muted HV dries liquidity, stalling treasury flywheels and slowing BTC/share growth, a critical differentiator in a space where leaders compound 100–300% faster than spot BTC.

Institutional screening and risk budgets

Institutions allocate based on realized volatility ceilings. BTC's maturing HV (down from 100%+ pre-2024) attracted pension and hedge fund flows, yet treasury equities often exceed 100%, forcing position caps or hedged mandates. Vol-rich regimes also power derivative products (e.g., Defiance's MSTX 2× MSTR ETF), while sharp HV contractions trigger mechanical deleveraging.

Cycle phase signal and bear-market warning

BTC 30D HV frequently leads treasury performance. Surges herald “acceleration phases” (per Fidelity's 2025 research), while sustained drops foreshadow premium collapses. In November 2025's ~50% HV regime, treasuries underperformed BTC by 20–50% as low vol failed to stoke FOMO, even with prices flat.

Bottom line

BTC 30D Historical Volatility is the pulse governing whether treasury companies outperform BTC (high vol unlocks alpha and stacking) or languish (low vol triggers premium decay). Leaders embrace volatility as a moat—laggards are filtered out. Compare each stock's HV to BTC's; ratios above 2× signal leveraged upside but also heightened liquidation risk in debt-heavy structures.

How BitcoinQuant incorporates it

Based on daily close prices for BTC. We take the standard deviation of daily log returns over the last 30 trading days, then annualize by multiplying by √252.